How Much You Think You Know
Here’s a little test about your “secondary knowledge,” which is how much you think you know. Create a 90% confidence interval for the above business facts. Specifically, pick a low point and a high point within which you are 90% sure the answer to the business fact lies.
For example, if I’m asked to estimate what percent of the world’s population the US constitutes, I’d say my 90% confidence range is 3 to 7 percent. (answer: 4.56%).
So without using any references, try it for yourself! Results and explanation to follow.
this reminds me of a “friend” (only in quotes b/c he’s since become estranged) in college that was constantly trying to become a contestant on that quirky millionaire show. we’d hang out and he’d always have a huge packet of papers w/ example questions that ABC would ask on entrance tests. they were fabulously challenging and one of the methods he’d use to study/deduce answers, was to create confidence intervals.
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